MUMBAI: Traders are getting more confident of further gains in the market in the short term, if derivatives data are to go by. Open interest, or outstanding positions, in Nifty futures rose to a seven-month high in a rising market, an indication that bullish sentiment is intact. Analysts said the gains in heavyweight stocks such as L&T, which had not performed yet, have boosted expectations that the benchmark indices will extend gains.
The Nifty gained 19.15 points, or 0.2 per cent, to end at 11,570.9 on Tuesdaya record closing level. The Sensex also closed at a record high of 38,285.7, up 7 points or flat, from the previous close. Indian market was shut Wednesday.
“Nifty is being driven by a couple of counters, which will continue to take it upwards. Eventually it will head to 12,000 level, but there will be volatility in between,” said Yogesh Radke, head of alternative and quantitative research at Edelweiss Securities.
The gain of 16.3 per cent and 17.9 per cent respectively in the Nifty and Sensex from calendar year low levels (hit on March 23) were largely driven by select stocks such as HDFC, HDFC Bank, Tata Consultancy Services, Hindustan Unilever, Reliance Industries and Kotak Mahindra Bank.
Capital goods major Larsen & Toubro has contributed to the gains in recent days with a gain of 7 per cent in the last few sessions on share buyback proposal. FMCG major ITC — another index heavyweight— has gained 14.4 per cent in the last one month.
Markets have trumped over negative factors such as interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of India, trade war worry and Indian rupees fall to record low levels and also because of the confidence that earnings outlook is improving.
Analysts said the 11,000 put option held maximum open positions among puts at the beginning of the series but now 11,400 is a key support for the market, which is not likely to be breached soon.
“Supports are gradually shifting higher. Call OI is also moving up. Data is showing scope for further upside in the market,” said Chandan Taparia, derivative analyst at Motilal Oswal Securities.
Nifty options data for the August series showed that the 11,600 strike holds maximum open interest among call options while the 11,400 strike holds the highest concentration of open positions among put options followed by the 11,500-strike.
“It is very much possible you will see this momentum continuing towards expiry,” said Amit Gupta, head of derivatives at ICICIdirect. “Positions are moving to 11,700, so that is a level where market can reach near expiry,” said Gupta.
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