The R value – a key measure of how much coronavirus is spreading – is around the crucial figure of one in the North West and South West of England, according to new estimates.
Public Health England (PHE) on Friday gave a regional breakdown of the COVID-19 transmission number, or R value.
Their estimates, calculated in conjunction with Cambridge University's MRC Biostatistics Unit, showed it was "probable" the R value was below one in all regions of England, with the exception of the North West and South West.
In the North West, the median R value was estimated to be over one.
And they said that, although in the South West it is "around" one, "the numbers of new infections occurring in the region on a daily basis is relatively low".
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Prime Minister Boris Johnson has made keeping the R value below one a critical measure when considering whether to ease the UK's lockdown.
And Health Secretary Matt Hancock admitted cases were higher in the two regions in question, saying local lockdowns could be introduced if there were flare-ups in the number of infections in certain areas.
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But he told the Downing Street briefing that the government's scientific advisory group (SAGE) still believed the R number was below one across the country.
"You're right that the R is closer to one in the South West and in the North West, the advice from SAGE is that R is below one in all regions," he said.
"However, we want to increasingly have an approach in tackling local lockdowns where we spot a flare-up.
"We've been doing this over the last few weeks, for instance there was a flare-up in Weston-super-Mare which we successfully got under control."
If the R value is one, then it means each infected person will on average pass coronavirus on to one other.
If it is above one, it means the number of COVID-19 cases will increase exponentially.
However, if it is below one, the disease will eventually peter out as not enough new people are being infected to sustain the outbreak.
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The PHE/Cambridge study said there was "some evidence" that the R value "has risen in all regions" of England, which they added was "probably due to increasing mobility and mixing between households and in public and workplace settings" after lockdown measures were eased.
The R number is only one part of ministers' consideration when it comes to easing lockdown measures.
The number of new cases is also crucial and it is the interaction between the two that matters most.
An update from the Office for National Statistics' Infection Survey has suggested there are now around 6,000 new infections in England each day.
However, the Cambridge study estimated that, across England, the number of new daily infections could be closer to 17,000, with the number of deaths each day likely to fall to between 100-250 by the middle of this month.
"There is evidence, from the forecast of deaths for the whole of England, that the increases in the regional reproductive numbers may result in the decline in the national death rate being arrested by mid-June," the study added.
Dr Yvonne Doyle, PHE medical director, said: "Our estimates show that the regional R numbers have increased although they remain below one for most of England – this is to be expected as we gradually move out of lockdown.
"It is vital that everyone continues with social distancing, practRead More – Source
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