London (The Londoner News) March 27, 2026 – Bus ridership in London, Ontario, fell by nearly two million passengers in 2025, dropping to 17.5 million from 19.2 million the previous year. The London Transit Commission attributes the decline primarily to reduced enrolment in the tuition pass program caused by federal caps on international students at local post-secondary institutions. Similar ridership drops have affected transit agencies across Ontario, including in Brampton, Mississauga, Waterloo Region, and Windsor.
London's public transit system recorded actual bus ridership of 17.5 million in 2025, marking a significant decrease from the 19.2 million riders in 2024. A report presented to the London Transit Commission details this performance against expectations, highlighting the shortfall's link to fewer participants in the tuition pass program. The city, home to Western University and Fanshawe College, has seen rides per capita decrease steadily over the past three years.
The report states:
“This shortfall is largely attributed to the decline in enrollment of participants in the tuition pass program, which is the direct result of caps on foreign student enrollments at post-secondary institutions.”
It further notes that service growth is not keeping pace with population increases, leading to crowding on many routes. Limited capacity within approved budgets prevents increases in service levels to address these issues.
Federal International Student Caps Introduced in 2024
The federal government implemented a cap on international student study permits in January 2024, which was subsequently tightened. This policy aimed to address pressures on housing and social services from high volumes of temporary residents. Ontario's post-secondary institutions, particularly colleges, have reported substantial revenue losses as a result.
Projections indicate Ontario universities and colleges face a $5.4 billion revenue shortfall by 2028-29 due solely to fewer international students. The Ontario government responded by lifting a seven-year tuition freeze for domestic students, allowing increases of up to 2% for three years, followed by 2% or the three-year average inflation rate, whichever is lower. Colleges Ontario estimates prior losses at $1.8 billion, with program suspensions and job cuts already implemented.
Further reductions are planned, with study permits limited to 155,000 in 2026, down from 305,900 previously projected, and 150,000 each in 2027 and 2028. These changes continue to impact student demographics in cities like London.
Provincial Transit Agencies Report Similar Declines
Grand River Transit (GRT) in Waterloo Region saw ridership drop 16% in 2025, from 26 million to 22.1 million trips. The agency attributes this mainly to reductions in the local student population from the federal cap. Despite the decline, actual figures exceeded forecasts of 21.9 million riders.
GRT's 2025 Year End Report, presented to the Region’s Sustainability, Infrastructure and Development committee, notes ongoing impacts from new immigration policies announced in late 2025. Conventional bus services provided over 1.3 million trips, covering 148 million kilometres and preventing 3.7 million kilograms of greenhouse gas emissions. ION light rail achieved 95.3% on-time performance, up slightly from 95.2% in 2024, while bus on-time performance improved marginally to 73.8%.
In Brampton, transit ridership declined 13.1% to 20%, with a $26 million loss in fare revenue directly linked to the student cap. The City of Brampton stated that federal policy changes reduced immigration inflows starting in 2024, slowing demand into 2025. Mississauga reported similar drops, prompting reviews of campus-serving routes.
Transit Windsor experienced a 13% ridership drop in the first half of 2025, tied to fewer students at St. Clair College and the University of Windsor. Executive Director James Chacko noted this trend across Ontario transit properties.
Broader Impacts on Ontario Transit and Economy
These ridership declines represent a reversal from post-COVID recoveries in suburbs like Brampton, Mississauga, and Waterloo Region. London joins these municipalities in reporting side effects from the student cap. Transit agencies face revenue shortfalls, affecting planning and service adjustments.
In Waterloo, acting Director of Transit Services Neil Malcolm highlighted shifts in student demographics requiring service adaptations. GRT plans expansions like transit priority networks, schedule tweaks for construction, and new services in townships via the Ontario Transit Investment Fund. Infrastructure improvements included 62 new concrete landing pads and 21 shelters, making 83% of bus stops accessible.
Ontario's colleges face the biggest enrolment hits, with over half of public colleges affected while only one university sees reductions. Colleges Ontario President Marketa Evans warned of severe impacts on the fall 2024 term. The policy has eased housing pressures but strained educational finances.
Expert Observations on Transit Challenges
Jonathan English, principal at Infrastory Insights, described the student cap's effect as a "bump in the road" for transit agencies rather than an existential threat. He noted Brampton's pre-student ridership growth of 250%, emphasising the need to attract non-student riders. Cities must enhance services to retain and grow ridership less dependent on students.
London's report underscores per capita declines amid population growth, complicating capacity management. Transit Windsor’s Chacko confirmed province-wide patterns linked to post-secondary enrolment drops. GRT anticipates continued trends into 2026 and plans updated projections.
The London Transit Commission meeting on the report occurred recently, providing the latest data on these developments. Ontario transit agencies continue monitoring federal policy changes for future adjustments.