Will Sadiq Khan Win a Fourth Term as Mayor of London in 2028?

Key Points

• Labour Remains Dominant Frontrunner: A new opinion poll shows the Labour Party remains significantly ahead of all major political rivals in the upcoming 2028 London mayoral race.
• Projected Victory on Second Preferences: Despite growing support for minor parties, the incumbent’s party is projected to secure a fourth term for Sir Sadiq Khan once second-preference votes are systematically transferred under expected supplementary voting rules.
• Polling Figures Revealed: In the latest Savanta poll for the Mile End Institute at Queen Mary University of London (QMUL), Labour leads with 32% of first-preference support, followed by the Conservatives at 20%, Reform UK at 19%, the Greens at 13%, and the Liberal Democrats at 11%.
• Green and Reform UK Surges Pose Challenges: The Green Party has experienced a notable surge in support to 13%, whilst Reform UK has climbed to 19%, capturing substantial ground in Outer London and amongst older demographics.
• London Assembly Shake-up Looming: The poll projects a dramatic restructuring of the London Assembly, with the Conservatives threatened with losing half of their eight seats, whilst Reform UK and the Green Party are poised to gain ground.
• Mayoral Candidacy Uncertainty: Although polling points to a Labour victory, Sir Sadiq Khan has not yet officially confirmed whether he will run for a historic fourth term, while Reform UK has already declared former Conservative Westminster councillor Laila Cunningham as its candidate.

London (The Londoner News) July 14, 2026 — Sir Sadiq Khan is on track to secure a historic fourth term as Mayor of London in the 2028 City Hall election, despite facing a significant surge in support for the Green Party and a competitive challenge from Reform UK, according to a brand-new opinion poll. The exclusive survey, conducted by polling firm Savanta for the Mile End Institute at Queen Mary University of London (QMUL), reveals that while London’s political landscape is fracturing, the Labour Party remains the dominant force in the capital.

The figures show Labour currently holding a solid lead at 32% of first-preference votes. The Conservative Party sits in second place at 20%, closely followed by a surging Reform UK at 19%. The Green Party has risen to 13% of the vote, whilst the Liberal Democrats trail in fifth place with 11%. Political analysts suggest that under the supplementary vote system, which is anticipated to be in place for the 2028 mayoral election, the transfer of second-preference votes from eliminated minor-party candidates would ultimately carry Sir Sadiq to victory.

However, the findings come amidst a period of considerable political fluidity. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is actively dumping campaign resources into the capital, positioning its newly announced candidate, Laila Cunningham, as a direct challenger to Labour’s dominance. Meanwhile, the Greens’ upward trajectory highlights growing progressive frustration with mainstream Labour policies, threatening to siphon off crucial left-wing votes in inner-city boroughs.

Why is Sadiq Khan projected to win a fourth term as Mayor of London?

To understand how Sir Sadiq could secure another historic term despite a fragmenting vote share, analysts point directly to the mechanics of the voting system and the distribution of progressive second-preferences.

As reported by Political Editor Nicholas Cecil of The Evening Standard, Dr Eoghan Kelly, a Postdoctoral Researcher in British Politics at Queen Mary University of London, stated that:

“This would amount to a Labour win after second preferences are counted, but much will depend on who the mayoral candidates are.”

How does the supplementary voting system affect the 2028 mayoral race?

The 2028 election is expected to utilise the supplementary vote system, allowing Londoners to mark both a first and second preference on their ballots. Under this system, if no candidate wins an outright majority of first-preference votes, all candidates except the top two are eliminated. The second-preference choices on the ballots of eliminated candidates are then distributed to the remaining top two contenders.

Because Green and Liberal Democrat voters are historically far more likely to select Labour as their second preference than the Conservatives or Reform UK, these transfers are highly projected to expand Labour’s lead in the final count, neutralizing the immediate threat posed by the Green Party’s rise.

What do the Savanta QMUL polling figures reveal about London’s political parties?

The data collected by Savanta highlights a highly competitive multi-party field in London, showing that while Labour maintains a clear double-digit lead, its rivals are shifting in strength.

What is the current state of first-preference voting intentions?

According to the data published by The Evening Standard, the first-preference voting intentions for the 2028 London mayoral race stand as follows:

Political Party	Support Percentage (%)
Labour Party	32%
Conservative Party	20%
Reform UK	19%
Green Party	13%
Liberal Democrats	11%

These figures demonstrate a notable contraction in Labour’s support compared to the 43.8% of the vote Sir Sadiq secured in the May 2024 mayoral election. The decline suggests growing voter weariness, yet the fractured nature of the opposition prevents any single challenger from mounting a decisive lead.

How is Reform UK threatening the traditional Conservative base in London?

One of the most striking revelations from the Savanta poll is the near-equal footing of the Conservative Party and Reform UK. With only a single percentage point separating them (20% to 19%), the right-wing vote in London is deeply divided.

Where is Reform UK gaining the most traction in London?

As reported by Nicholas Cecil of The Evening Standard, the polling data indicates that Reform UK is capturing significant support in the outer boroughs. Specifically, Reform UK commands 21% of the vote in Outer London compared to 16% in Inner London. By contrast, Labour leads with 37% in Inner London, dropping to 29% in Outer London.

Which age groups and demographics are backing Nigel Farage’s party?

The demographic breakdown of the poll reveals a stark generational divide in the capital’s voting habits:

• Younger Voters (18-24): Only 5% of Londoners in this bracket intend to vote for Reform UK.
• Middle-Aged Voters (45-54): Support for Reform UK rises significantly to 22%.
• Older Voters (55 and over): Reform UK enjoys its strongest backing here at 26%.
• Gender Divide: The party is notably more popular among men than women, leading by a margin of 21% to 16%.

Who is Laila Cunningham and how is she challenging Sadiq Khan?

The political battlefield has already begun to take shape with the official declaration of candidates. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage announced that former Conservative Westminster councillor Laila Cunningham will be the party’s official contender for Mayor of London.

What are Laila Cunningham’s core campaign promises?

Cunningham, a former Crown Prosecution Service lawyer who defected from the Tories to Reform UK, has launched a highly critical campaign focusing heavily on law and order.

As reported by Nicholas Cecil of The Evening Standard, Laila Cunningham stated on GB News:

“We hear that there has not been full vetting of officers… a man accused of child rape was allowed to join the Met after a vetting panel overturned his rejection because of diversity targets. This is endemic of what is going on in the Met. We have 32,000 officers, I don’t see any of them. When you go to Oxford Street, or areas which are high crime areas, I don’t see any police on the streets.”

Furthermore, as written by Nicholas Cecil in The Evening Standard, Cunningham added:

“I would like to restore visible policing and I would like to have a zero tolerance approach to crime, even shoplifting. There has been a very lax attitude to crime.”

Cunningham is actively seeking to frame the 2028 mayoral election as a clear “binary choice” between herself and the Labour incumbent, hoping to rally both disaffected Conservative voters and those concerned about metropolitan crime rates under her banner.

How has the Metropolitan Police responded to Reform UK’s crime accusations?

In response to Cunningham’s pointed criticisms regarding policing in high-crime shopping districts and the West End, Scotland Yard has robustly defended its operational achievements and ongoing strategies.

What measures are being taken to police London’s West End?

As reported by The Evening Standard, the Metropolitan Police issued a statement emphasizing that up to 80 additional officers are being deployed to the West End team to target the specific offenses Londoners care about most. These priority areas include:

• Anti-social behaviour
• Violence against women and girls
• Prolific shoplifting
• Mobile phone robbery

What do the Met’s official crime statistics show?

According to official figures highlighted by The Evening Standard, the Met Police’s targeted initiatives in the West End have yielded measurable success. Personal robberies fell by 20%, violence with injury dropped by 25%, and general violence against the person decreased by 8%.

Furthermore, telephone thefts and personal item crimes fell by 23% in Westminster and by over 15% across London as a whole throughout 2025, alongside a 14% drop in city-wide robberies.

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Will Sadiq Khan definitely stand for a fourth term?

Despite the favorable polling projection, a major question mark remains over whether Sir Sadiq Khan will actually put his name forward for the 2028 ballot.

What has Sadiq Khan said about running in 2028?

While some political commentators and media outlets, such as the New Statesman, previously reported that Khan had privately expressed a desire to step down after his third term, the Mayor has publicly corrected this narrative. In September 2025, Khan explicitly stated that it was his “intention” to stand again in 2028. He followed this up in February 2026 by asserting that he had “already worked out” his campaign strategy for the upcoming election.

Who else could run for London Mayor if Sadiq Khan steps down?

Should Sir Sadiq decide to vacate City Hall, a number of prominent figures have been floated as potential Labour candidates. Dawn Butler, the MP for Brent East, confirmed her intention to run if Khan decides not to stand. Other potential contenders mentioned in political circles include Rosena Allin-Khan (MP for Tooting), Stella Creasy (MP for Walthamstow), and Mete Coban (Deputy Mayor for Environment and Energy).

How will the London Assembly be affected by these polling trends?

The political shift captured by Savanta is not limited to the mayoral race; it is poised to trigger a massive shake-up within the 25-seat London Assembly.

What are the projected voting shares for the London Assembly?

The polling indicates that in the constituency vote for the Assembly, Labour leads with 34%. The Conservatives and Reform UK are tied in second place on 18%, followed by the Greens on 15% and the Liberal Democrats on 13%.

How many seats could each party win under these projections?

According to seat projections calculated by Dr Eoghan Kelly on DevolvedElections.co.uk, the 25 seats of the London Assembly would be distributed as follows:

• Labour Party: Projected to remain stable on 11 seats.
• Conservative Party: Projected to lose half of their representation, falling from eight seats down to just four.
• Reform UK: Projected to make major gains, picking up three seats to finish with four overall.
• Green Party: Projected to increase their presence by one seat, rising to four seats.
• Liberal Democrats: Projected to maintain their current standing with two seats.

As reported by Nicholas Cecil of The Evening Standard, Dr Eoghan Kelly noted the historic implications of this projection, stating that:

“The poll suggests some big changes to the Assembly as the Conservatives stand to lose of all their constituency seats with all their currently projected seats coming on the List. Reform UK would be favourites to win two outer borough seats; Bexley & Bromley and Havering & Redbridge, marking the first time a party other than Labour, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats have won a constituency seat since Assembly was revived in 2000.”

This potential realignment suggests that even if Labour secures the mayoralty, the next Mayor of London will have to navigate a far more polarized and fragmented Assembly chamber.